Global Water Demand Projections: Past, Present and Future

Global Water Demand Projections: Past, Present and Future

  • Upali A. Amarasinghe
  • Vladimir Smakhtin
Publisher:IWMIISBN 13: 9789290907930ISBN 10: 9290907932

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Global Water Demand Projections: Past, Present and Future is written by Upali A. Amarasinghe and published by IWMI. It's available with International Standard Book Number or ISBN identification 9290907932 (ISBN 10) and 9789290907930 (ISBN 13).

A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial over- or under-estimation. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, over-projected current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.